Understanding Transmission Rates

What’s the REAL risk of transmission?

According to the CDC, the risk of transmission is determined two ways:

First, note that they arbitrarily select whichever level is higher. Why? One might speculate this serves the narrative by stirring fear, amplifying the perceived threat, and putting more red on the map:

(This map was retrieved from the CDC on 11.16.2021.)

So, what’s with all the red? These are areas with “High” rates of community transmission.

Based on this map, Covid is spreading like wildfire!

From there we can deduce a plausible narrative:

1. Covid is spreading through high rates of community transmission.
2. High community transmission leads to many new cases of Covid.
3. Many new cases of Covid-19 inevitably lead to many more deaths.

Thus, communities with high transmission rates need to take extra precautions and preemptive measures to reduce the spread of Covid–potentially saving countless lives by reducing preventable deaths.

Pause for a moment. It makes sense right? Who can argue with that? The truth is, this line of thinking is flawed for multiple reasons. These may seem like reasonable conclusions, but they are in fact illogical and irrational assumptions. Allow me to explain:

Take a closer look at the map. Notice anything strange?

Growing up in Alaska, I noticed a few things worth pointing out:

1. Almost the ENTIRE state of Alaska is red–indicating high transmission.
2. However, large swaths of the state are virtually uninhabited.
3. Logically, it would be impossible to catch Covid all alone in the wilderness.

The same observations could be made in Klickitat County, and other sparsely populated areas throughout the state and across the country. Which leads to a very logical question: Why is it that pretty much all of these remote areas have such “high transmission” rates?

Something doesn’t add up!

Not only can I not catch Covid while walking alone in the wilderness, there are also no other people around for me to give it to–which should, in theory, significantly reduce any transmission rate and/or effectively eliminate community spread in sparsely populated rural areas.

But notice how the heavily populated California coast has a LOWER transmission rate than the rural parts of North & South Dakota. How can that be? Surely infections must spread faster in densely populated urban areas–there are simply more people mingling in the metro environment. Commonsense says that riding a subway or city bus to work increases the spread of disease much more than driving into town to get supplies once or twice a week!

It should be obvious that Covid is not rapidly spreading across vast expanses of uninhabited terrain. So what’s really going on here?

Get the answer in this episode of Good Morning Goldendale!